Category: Random

Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World, Book Review

~ Veselin ~ Leave a comment

I’m interested in improving my understanding of experimentation. As a person, educated in frequentist statistics, I wanted to learn more about the Bayesian approach, so I got myself a bunch of related books with an increasing level of difficulty to read (more and more formulas).

This is the first one of the batch, which is popular science. It’s tells the story of Bayes and his approach to decision making based on updating probabilities. The amount of useful content inside is roughly comparable to 2-3 popular science Youtube videos of the type I like watching.

The book shared some useful stories and examples, the backstory, and some context about the theorem and its use. However, once I got some of that, it started repeating, nearing unreadability towards the end.

Do I regret reading it? No, I think it cracked some doors open for me and it will help me understand the matter better once I get into the textbooks. So, while I wouldn’t give it a 5*, I think it’s a solid 4*/5 and worth the time and money, as long as you dedicate time for it and read it in 2-3 days, not in 1+ months, which is what I did.

Pull-ups Update

~ Veselin ~ 5 Comments

One of my annual goals was to make one pull-up. The last meaningful update on that goal was in March, when I made 3 reps with a neutral grip. Since then, I struggled with injuries and gained a few kilograms of weight. So it didn’t look like I’ll make progress past three.

In order to address the pain while not giving up on the goal, I lowered the intensity of my exercises, increased the frequency, stopped making them from a full hang, and ditched the neutral grip in favor of the standard semi-false grip. I now do 1-4 series almost every day, depending on how I feel. I also introduced non-standard push ups with various difficulty.

After 4 months of that, my forearms no longer hurt as much as they did in March. They still do, I sense a bit of pain even as I type this, but it’s okay. Not something that would take the peace of my mind.

So, today, I showed my kids how to properly hang on a bar. And the bars in the school where we played have one that’s significantly higher than the one I regularly use. I can’t even try making a pull-up without fully hanging first. I tried doing pull-ups there, and made 4 clean reps.

Four is the new record for me. It took me roughly 4 months since the previous record of three, and it happened almost by accident. But at the same time, I exercised every day since we came back from Sozopoli, so maybe not that much of an accident after all.

Would I do 5 soon? Who knows. It can happen tomorrow, in another 4 months, or never. Doing this at 47 is tough and it hurts. Lots of things are pulling me down. Maybe the right way to get to a higher number of repetitions is to eat healthier food.

Best purchase ever

~ Veselin ~ 4 Comments
Daily writing prompt
What is the best purchase you have ever made?
View all responses

I try to not get too attached to items and keep them replaceable.

I grew up in an environment when we couldn’t really own anything expensive. One day, my parents brought home beautiful fake adidas pants with three stripes (I think it was abidas or something like that). I went out with it and a kid pushed me down during play (probably on purpose) so my pants got torn. I learned by that mistake and the next fancy thing (a sweather) my parents brought, I didn’t wear at all. Then there was a birthday party and I wanted to put it on, and it was already too small. I outgrew it. So that didn’t work either.

Later in life, I had a chance to experience shopping stuff I need and want, I need and don’t want, I want but don’t need, and even stuff I neither wanted or needed. I it was around my mid-30s when I established some stable principles and conclusions about purchases.

  • The satisfaction you get from a new car and from a new book is not too far out but the car is far more expensive
  • Storage space is a limiting factor for the things you want but don’t need. Space management requires a good sense of minimalism. Once you learn how to throw away things, you get attached to items even less and no longer buy as much as before
  • You can’t be cheap on stuff you’ll use for work, and some of the hardware that frequently fails, I keep fallbacks. I have multiple backup glasses, some kept at specific locations, multiple headphones, countless chargers, cables, connectors, a battery that can recharge my computer and so on.

So with this philosophy, the items I buy are replaceable. Even my book collection is fluid, with a constant outflow of books that get donated.

If I can nominate one item that was life changing and at the same time inexpensive and easily replaceable, that’s my Apple Watch. It keeps me walking.

Sozopoli

~ Veselin ~ 1 Comment

We spent a week in the Greek village of Sozopoli. Greece has hundreds or thousands of such places. I’m yet to find one that isn’t nice.

Sozopoli, in particular, is beautiful but has a bit of a problem with stray dogs. My step count plummeted because strays are territorial before being fed in the morning and barked at me when trying to do my morning steps. Locals seem to go out in the evening but my internal clock complained and I went down to something like 4k steps/day on some days. I tend to be more productive when starting the day early.

The first photo shows a road with a guardian.