Some insights from Sabine Hossenfelder’s book Lost in Math

I’m reading the book Lost in Math by the famous Youtube content creator and scientist Sabine Hossenfelder.

The author shares stories around a common theme – beauty shouldn’t be an argument in science. According to Sabine Hossenfelder, scientists have the tendency to chase beautiful ideas and dismiss hacky, unnatural solutions that explain the world very well due to their ugliness. She gives the heliocentric model as an example. Scientists from the past had difficulties accepting that stars are as far as we know they are because the numbers were too large, which felt unnatural. I’m encountering this type of problems relatively often, with beauty being used as an argument for expensive ideas, for example new standards, or second systems / rewrites.

Who could’ve imagined that this is where I’ll find cues on my quest on figuring out web experimentation (yeah, I’ve not blogged about that, but maybe it’s a good moment to start). I’ll just share two quotes.

…you could go most of your life without having to confront [the results of an] experiment”

Apparently, physicists sometimes run experiments that take a really long time, like decades. For example, particle accelerators that are expecting to produce a new particle in decades, meanwhile postponing decision making and facing the realities of known models not producing the expected results. In my world, where experiments are run on web, I’ve also encountered long-running web experiments. Usually because the sample size is small or because we expect some distant future event to happen, which never comes.

“If you are an honest physicist, 99.99 percent of your ideas, even good ideas, are going to be ruled out, not by new experiments but already by inconsistency with old experiments.”

Same applies to web experimentation as well, although the share is probably not 99.99% (as it isn’t for theoretical physics either). Verifying ideas against prior experiments can filter out many of them quickly. But there’s always the problem – does that old experiment still apply even if we ran it X years ago? What if something in the setup was wrong and it works now?

This book touches my chords despite being unrelated to my work. Something in the area of process is overlapping. I don’t know why yet but I’ll keep reading.

The biggest challenge over the next 6 months

Daily writing prompt
What is the biggest challenge you will face in the next six months?

An easy answer would be some individual problem, like health, loss, or work. The hard answer is – dealing with uncertainty without dwelling on the endless negative outcomes. I need my imagination to be helpful.

People have come to many ways to calm their fortune-telling never-ending internal narrator:

  • Meditation. Whatever the future, focus on the present. Life is simple in the now. Ignore the past.
  • Religion. If God will take care of all of us after all, why worry about the future? Study the very distant past.
  • Psychology. Whatever the future, nobody can take away your past.
  • Capitalism. Imagine this fantastic new car, don’t bother with the other things. Go shopping for dopamine highs.
  • News. Be afraid, be very afraid. We will use your internal narrator to make you come back and buy things.

And so on. It is a long search.

The drop

In 1998, I had the privilege of studying under the old accounting professor Kosta Pergelov (may he rest in peace). He would love to sneak philosophy into his lectures. One of his proverbs stuck in my mind. He would stand in front of the full hall with about 100 students and slowly yell if you can imagine slow yelling:

Colleagues! The drop drills the stone not with force but with persistence.

I adopted that in my personal belief system. Perhaps it helped that Professor Pergelov would repeat the proverb every other lecture with his signature slow yelling.

Give the drops enough time and they’ll carve a path to the stars.