Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments: … you got my attention

Just yesterday, I shared about a popular science book about Bayes. Today I started a new one, called Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments: A Practical Guide to A/B Testing. I picked it because I want to learn more about the industry standard way of doing controlled experiments, an area where I have some experience. This particular book started well.

Even the first chapters show that the authors do have experience I can relate to and can, hopefully, learn from.

This quote, for example, is included in their preface:

Any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong

— Twyman’s Law

It matches my experience with overly positive results or ambitious claims in analysis. Can’t tell you how many times I’ve fallen into the trap of believing something wins big time while there was really just a mistake, or a bias of some kind, twisting the results. But I had no clue someone postulated a law on it and got a Wikipedia page about it. I can now cite it and gain mana points 😀

So, I have a good feeling about this book and I hope to be able to complete it much faster than the last one. It just starts well.

Unfortunately, my copy arrived with significant damage. It was improperly packaged and delivered poorly. However, it is a book I read with a pen, underlining what I think is important, and leaving notes inside, so it will not get any better anyway.

Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World, Book Review

I’m interested in improving my understanding of experimentation. As a person, educated in frequentist statistics, I wanted to learn more about the Bayesian approach, so I got myself a bunch of related books with an increasing level of difficulty to read (more and more formulas).

This is the first one of the batch, which is popular science. It’s tells the story of Bayes and his approach to decision making based on updating probabilities. The amount of useful content inside is roughly comparable to 2-3 popular science Youtube videos of the type I like watching.

The book shared some useful stories and examples, the backstory, and some context about the theorem and its use. However, once I got some of that, it started repeating, nearing unreadability towards the end.

Do I regret reading it? No, I think it cracked some doors open for me and it will help me understand the matter better once I get into the textbooks. So, while I wouldn’t give it a 5*, I think it’s a solid 4*/5 and worth the time and money, as long as you dedicate time for it and read it in 2-3 days, not in 1+ months, which is what I did.

Head Cases by John McMahon, Book Review

A group of nerds is either brought together at the FBI to solve its toughest cases or to fail together because they suck. The lead nerd also happens to be the protagonist. I already don’t remember his name but he’s the type of person who would count things or spot things nobody else does.

The promise of watching a team of nerds solve a big mystery is delivered. The mystery is medium level difficulty but involves multiple serial killers. The main villain is something of a Dexter Morgan type. He clearly knows far too much to not be FBI, at the same time may also be a nerd himself. FBI people wouldn’t enjoy being investigated as suspects.

If you don’t like tropes, this book would not be for you. For me, it was a satisfying read that I’d rate around 4.5*/5. Not very original or anything, just satisfying.

I waited on a queue to take this photo

Sorry it didn’t turn out very well and there’s glare but I’m sure you’ll appreciate the situation.

A cat chilling on a velvet pillow in front of a signed photo of Evanna Lynch. Shishman Street.

It’s not easy to find a way to combine the books and cats tags 🙂 I think this is the first time I do it.

Then She Was Gone by Lisa Jewell

This is my fourth book in the recent months with a strong taste of weirdness. It was clearly written this way so it’s a feature, not a bug. I read None of This Is True earlier and liked it very much. These books are told in a way that we have a central awful and terrible event that’s uncovered through eye witnesses who live their normal lives. So it’s mostly ordinary stuff that happens but then here and there we have extremely unsettling and definitely not ordinary events and problems. Like horror story red flags randomly thrown in innocent conversations.

The plot goes around the disappearance of a highschooler and the devastation dealt to her family. The mom doesn’t give up on trying to find what happened to her daughter but does she even have any contribution to the story? And what really is the story here? It’s not at all that clear.

I gave the book 4*/5. Similarly to the books by Freida McFadden, I do not feel particular satisfaction reading weird books but at the same time appreciate the ingenuity. So I’d be happy to check another book by Lisa Jewell but may need a gap of a few months or years before I do so. This book was exhausting.

I finished it last week and damaged the book a bit. I hope the library doesn’t mind and accepts it as a donation. I would not like keep it on my shelves or remember about it.