AI can write code. It can’t do 100% of the work, can’t even do 50%, but it can do a lot and is improving. It doesn’t get tired and doesn’t freak out when facing a new codebase.
It can write blog posts. Maybe not good posts but some posts that can fool some readers. It can also generate quantity that cannot be matched by humans.
AI can respond to support requests. Maybe not the greatest support on the planet but enough to be used by all Bulgarian telecom operators. It might be bad but it is also fast.
Given that 10 years ago, none of that was possible, if we plot a chart where 10 years ago we had nearly zero AI, and today we have some AI replacing humans, where does the chart go 10 years from now? Is AI becoming omniscient?
I recently read a 1962 book where one AI had the ambition to eliminate the entire human creativity (Gordon Dickson’s Necromancer). Gordon Dickson wasn’t far of from what LLM is doing at the moment. It’s hard to predict how far it will go without imagining some things it could possibly start doing and doesn’t do right now.
Here’s some AI engineering milestones to watch for.
1. AI, play me 5 new seasons of Wednesday
We should be close to that. Maybe a bit expensive with the tokens but what’s really missing to make it possible? It doesn’t even need a robotic body.
Speaking of bodies, giving it access to a printer or some other tools opens a Pandora box of possibilities.
2. AI, make me a sandwich
Why not? Building that may not even require AI. Most of the tech for it is available, perhaps some software and hardware is missing here and there but we can imagine seeing startups doing cooking bots in the nearby future. Cleaning and refilling the food toner would be very interesting challenges.
3. AI, make me a car
Okay, this is a tougher one. Lots of patents will be violated. AI doesn’t seem to care right now, and I’m sure there will be ways to circumvent intellectual property. Would that ever be possible? It should be. The AI may need access to some machinery but nothing that doesn’t already exist.
4. AI, make me a nuke
An AI capable of building cars would have no trouble producing weapons, and particularly copying and modifying existing weapon systems. I’m sure it will be used for weapons long before it’s used for cars. But what if this capability becomes available to individuals, not state actors?
And last but not least,
5. AI, print me some cash
The primary reason for not going down this ladder would be that the blueprints are protected, not that it can’t be used that way if it’s trained that way.
Overall, I think the development of AI presents bigger problems than humans becoming redundant, administrative bloat, and UBI. While we already observe a decline in all kinds of human activities that are being automated and made mediocre by AI, humans won’t stop trying to use it elsewhere. I see lots of room for changes that can damage the existing societal order.
Veselin.blog 
Yikes!
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Makes one think!
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What do you think will happen?
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I think Big Brother is likely to win.
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Big Brother suffers from the issue with pitchforks
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I personally believe that generative AI that the general public uses today, like chatGPT will die out in a few years or so. Like you’ve said, AI can write code, blog posts etc, but it doesn’t do it well and I don’t think it will improve massively either anytime soon. Or at least I hope so.
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it doesn’t need to improve. What it does is already sufficiently good to replace millions of workers and to suffocate the open web.
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Great post and good question.
I try to avoid the use of AI wherever I can.
However, it’s an inevitable, and will (for want of a better word) ‘improve’ and be an essential part of the new way of doing things.
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Great post. I tried it a few times but have decided not to any more. It could be well on the way to omniscience and we do need controls in place now. We humans can be sooo stupid. Just because a thing can be done, doesn’t mean it should be done or shouldn’t have limits.
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Things that can be done often end up being done just because it’s possible
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Particularly with Points 4 and 5, I see a great deal of effort into keeping IP out of reach of ML/DL algorithms. As more and more AI generated content circles back into ML models, i see GAI plateauing where generated content is just regurgitated material from previous iterations; where even now tools are used to identify GAI content.
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We have to admit that as a tool to generate text, LLM AIs are fantastic. But I’m not talking about that, I’m talking about other areas where AI can attempt to steal the market.
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Both the potential for positive disruption and the possible downsides are massive for sure.
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